The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released an analysis suggesting that while AI has the potential to significantly enhance global productivity and economic growth, it also poses risks of job displacement and increasing inequality.
IMF economists have delved into the potential effects of AI on the worldwide job market, acknowledging that although many roles may be automated by AI, the technology is also likely to augment human labor in numerous cases. Their analysis presents a balanced view of these possibilities.
The results indicate a considerable impact: nearly 40 percent of jobs worldwide could be either automated or augmented by AI.
New technologies have traditionally targeted routine tasks, but AI has the potential to affect positions requiring high levels of skill. Consequently, advanced economies could experience higher risks from AI but might also reap more substantial benefits compared to emerging markets.
According to the IMF’s study, up to 60 percent of employment in advanced economies could be influenced by AI, with about half of these positions likely to see productivity gains from AI integration. For the others, AI’s ability to perform essential tasks could reduce the demand for labor, wages, and employment opportunities, and in certain instances, lead to the elimination of jobs.
For emerging and developing economies, the projected exposure to AI is 40 percent and 26 percent, respectively, indicating a lower risk of immediate disruption compared to more developed regions. However, the lack of infrastructure and skills necessary to leverage AI in many of these economies could exacerbate global inequalities over time.
The IMF also highlights concerns about increasing domestic inequality, with workers who can leverage AI likely to see productivity and wage increases, while those unable to adapt may be left behind.
Studies suggest that AI could particularly enhance the productivity of less experienced employees, potentially offering greater benefits to younger workers, while older employees might find the transition to AI integration more challenging.
Although advanced economies are in a better position to adopt AI, they need to focus on fostering innovation, ensuring effective integration, and regulating the technology to guarantee its safe and ethical use. For emerging markets, the emphasis should be on building digital infrastructure and developing relevant skills.
To help nations devise efficient policies for coping with AI’s impact, the IMF has introduced the AI Preparedness Index. This tool assesses a country’s readiness across several dimensions, including digital infrastructure, human capital, innovation, and regulation. Wealthier nations such as Singapore, the U.S., and Denmark rank high in terms of AI preparedness.
